Our PTO (in an affluent area) tried the "No Fuss Fundraiser" a few years ago when the beginning checkbook balance was already particularly high and we could afford the risk. Good thing, too, because we earned about 1/2 of what we had earned with the catalog fundraising the year before. I took a look and here's what I found...
If you look only at the total amount of money you need to raise, divided by the number of kids in your school, it doesn't look so bad, about $21 per student. But, at our school, only 1/2 the students participate in our catalog fundraisers (based on the results of 5-6 fundraisers). So in order to match our catalog profit, we need to ask for a donation of $45 per student, since no more than 50% will participate.
Our stats show that, on average, each student sells to about 3 customers - grandma, uncle, the neighbor. So, those customers are contributing to the $45 profit brought in by the student. In a No Fuss program, that money is coming right out of mom and dad's pocket.
It sounds so easy, but we found it to be a bust. Clearly, good marketing can make a world of difference, and increase your sales, but how much??
Before you abandon the catalog sale, maybe consider other vendors, or running it a different time of the year. Or maybe try an auction or major raffle like a car. They're more work, but like most things, you rarely get something for nothing.